Bitcoin drops 3.3% in October, demand weakens per CryptoQuant

As of October 28, Bitcoin (BTC) is projected to finish the month in the red, having dropped 3.3%. A recent report from CryptoQuant indicated that BTC traded near $81,350, a decrease from the $83,570 recorded at the end of September. This trend represents a notable departure from the typical October performance, given that Bitcoin concluded every October between 2020 and 2024 with gains, averaging about 18% during that span. The pattern was broken in October 2025, which saw a 3.8% decline, and this year appears set to continue the streak of losses.

The cooling market momentum is mirrored by a dip in spot demand as Bitcoin's valuation declines. On October 25, CryptoQuant’s 30-day apparent demand metric registered at -76,000 BTC. This figure has been negative daily since October 14, signaling that the volume of Bitcoin entering circulation is greater than the amount being absorbed by buyers. Weak buying activity has also been observed in the United States. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the price variance between Bitcoin on Binance and Coinbase, remained negative throughout the month of October. It reached its lowest point since late June, hitting -0.146 on October 24. This gap has widened in comparison to last month, with October's mean reading at -0.093, which is roughly three times higher than September’s level, suggesting less buying impetus on Coinbase relative to Binance, although this single metric cannot fully account for the slowdown in demand.

Furthermore, indications show that Bitcoin's recent price weakness has eroded the profits of traders operating on a short-term basis. Their paper gains have fallen from approximately 33% in September to just 8%. Concurrently, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has declined from 90 in late September and early October to 60 since October 19. Nevertheless, the outlook isn't entirely bleak, because six out of the index's ten components still show positive readings. CryptoQuant maintains that market conditions are "bullish, cooling," but a drop to 50 or below would signal a much more substantial weakening of strength.

As the price remains under pressure, Bitcoin is drawing near several critical support levels. The 365-day moving average is situated around $77,585, while the average cost basis for short-term traders hovers near $74,041. Additionally, the 200-day moving average stands at $73,028. All three of these benchmarks are within about 10% of Bitcoin's price on October 25, making them crucial points to monitor should the downward trend persist. The analytics firm pointed out that a prolonged fall beneath this level could place recent purchasers in a negative position. This report, titled "Bitcoin Heads for Another October Loss as Demand Weakens," was initially published on CryptoPotato.

Why it matters

This trend indicates weakening market momentum and reduced buying pressure for Bitcoin this month. Investors should watch if BTC can hold key support levels like the 365-day moving average near $77,585.