bitcoinFeature
Bitcoin faces Fed risk, on-chain data hints at $80k bottom
Recent on-chain data suggests Bitcoin might be near a bottom around $80k, even as the Federal Reserve's stance creates uncertainty.
The next 48 hours hold significant weight for Bitcoin's November trajectory, with the FOMC meeting scheduled for October 28th potentially serving as a major pivot point for Q4 momentum.
Following a dip below its key resistance at $80k and a decline in BTC.D below 60%, a retest of $75k appears increasingly probable, which could inject further downward pressure into crypto heading into November.
Vugar Usi, CEO of MEXC, stated regarding the upcoming Fed meeting: "The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its October meeting as it balances rising inflation with a weakening labor market."
The key question for Bitcoin now centers on whether the Fed signals more rate hikes "ahead." US inflation rose by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7% in September, marking the highest increase since May 2026, a sticky inflation fueled by higher energy prices that might impede rate cuts.
Should officials hint that rates may stay elevated for longer, Bitcoin could re-enter a bearish phase. Yet, if the market has already priced in this hawkish Fed outlook, BTC could still surge even with cautious Fed action.
Key indicators suggest BTC might sustain above $80k even if the Fed adopts a hawkish stance or allows for another rate increase in December. Vugar Usi also emphasized demand's role in sustaining Bitcoin's recovery.
Despite market expectations following the September 16 Fed meeting, BTC rallied from $75k to $81k. However, outflows of about $774 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs between October 22–23 underscore the necessity of a recovery in spot demand.
On-chain evidence supports this outlook; recent BTC holders have moved out of the intense sell zone, and the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium has hit a low not seen since June 2026, a time when BTC bottomed the next day before rising 50%.
Why it matters
Market sentiment hinges on the Federal Reserve's stance amid sticky inflation and labor market data. If Bitcoin defends the $80k level, it could signal a rally, but a hawkish Fed could push prices toward $75k.
