Bitwise Projects $1.6 Million Bitcoin by 2036. Does Gold Hold the Key?

Most of that value depends on Bitcoin winning a quarter of the store-of-value market it shares with gold. The store-of-value slot supplies about $27.5 trillion of the model's $33.6 trillion total, roughly 82% of Bitcoin's projected 2036 value. That leaves the target exposed to one assumption more than any other in the model.

What Bitwise Needs Bitcoin to Take From Gold Bitwise builds the target with a total addressable market model. It sizes each market Bitcoin could serve, applies a penetration rate, and divides by the full 21 million supply. The firm expects the combined gold and Bitcoin market to grow from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036.

Its base case hands Bitcoin 25% of that pool. At the starting price, Bitcoin's 20.1 million circulating coins are worth about $1.7 trillion, roughly 5% of today's $31.1 trillion market. The six other markets in the model, including institutional portfolios and national treasury reserves, add only about $6 trillion combined.