Experts say McRib return shows no correlation with Bitcoin price

However, experts are dismissing this notion entirely, asserting there is "no correlation at all" between the two events.

The McRib has recently become a recurring crypto meme because many participants in the trading sphere hold the conviction that its appearance on the menu precedes a boost in Bitcoin's price. Yet, those who champion this theory are overlooking numerous instances where the McRib's return failed to coincide with any rise in the cryptocurrency's valuation.

Luke Nolan, a senior researcher at CoinShares, informed Decrypt that "There is no correlation at all," adding that while it constitutes an amusing pastime, it appears people tend to disregard McRib appearances when they do not support the prevailing narrative. Nolan presented a chart comparing Bitcoin's weekly closing price against the McRib's return dates, revealing that only three out of ten times the McRib reappeared did Bitcoin post a clearly positive return. In fact, the data suggests it frequently precedes significant declines in valuation.

Carlos Guzman, who serves as vice president of research at the crypto trading firm GSR, echoed this sentiment, stating there is "no causal mechanism" and that any price movement following the sandwich's comeback is merely a "funny coincidence." Nolan further elaborated, suggesting that if this phenomenon were to genuinely signal the start of a bull run, it would be profoundly illogical, comparing it to instances where people overlaid Dune movie releases. He concluded that even under the most optimistic scenario, the link is purely accidental.

Guzman concurred with this assessment, noting that the community likely persists with this idea because it is "silly," "obviously absurd," and provides a source of amusement.

This year's reappearance of the McRib occurs while Bitcoin is currently in what André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, termed a "wait and see mode," as traders await signals from the Federal Reserve before committing to substantial investments. According to data from Decrypt, Bitcoin has shown relatively modest movement over the last month, currently resting at $79,750, having dipped by only 6%.

The Fed initiated a rate increase in September, marking the first such action since 2023, followed by a 0.6% rise in the CPI for that month. The central bank's upcoming rate determination is scheduled for Wednesday. Jake Koch-Gallup, a senior research analyst at Blockworks, told Decrypt that this decision is one of three major catalysts expected within the next two weeks; the others include an options expiration involving $11.69 billion of Bitcoin on October 30th and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd.

Koch-Gallup mentioned last week that "If the Fed keeps rates the same and ETF inflows keep coming, I’d expect the break to be upward." Conversely, he stated, "If the Fed hikes again, the $75,000 to $77,000 floor comes back into play." Thus, should the Fed provide the market with what it desires, Bitcoin’s price could potentially ascend in the days ahead—a scenario that, ironically, mirrors the return of the McRib to McDonald's establishments. Experts maintain that this connection is nothing more than chance.

Why it matters

The market is currently focused on real economic catalysts, not food memes. Traders should be watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision, as this is cited as a key factor influencing Bitcoin's short-term direction.