Galaxy Says Bitcoin Bear Market Over Despite Red October Fears

Despite the outlook suggesting a second consecutive losing October for Bitcoin, Galaxy Research posits that the market may have already shifted its trajectory.

This hopeful view is bolstered by U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw $110 million in net inflows on October 26. This influx ended a two-day outflow streak, largely driven by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

However, this recovery shows signs of fragility, as U.S. spot Ether ETFs registered outflows between $88 million and $90 million during the same session, indicating institutional optimism is not universal.

Galaxy Research declared the Bitcoin bear market concluded in an October 26 assessment, arguing that BTC entered an accumulation phase after potentially bottoming near $76,500 on June 30. The firm cites Bitcoin's sustained closing above key long-term averages, including the 50-week moving average.

Furthermore, Galaxy notes that selling pressure from various sources has diminished; long-term holders have reduced their distribution, and macro traders and basis-focused funds have trimmed their exposure.

Galaxy’s bullish stance is not absolute; a sustained weekly close below the 50-week moving average without a prompt rebound would invalidate their assessment and increase the risk of further declines.

Bitcoin's immediate hurdle involves testing the $75,800–$76,500 range around its 50-week moving average while sustaining spot demand. If ETF inflows persist and selling remains muted, BTC could establish a stronger foundation for upward movement.

Why it matters

This suggests a potential shift in market sentiment, moving from bearish pressure to accumulation. Readers should watch if sustained ETF inflows and BTC's ability to hold above key moving averages confirm Galaxy's bullish outlook.