Hash Rate Nears Record Despite Miners Shifting Power to AI

According to data from Glassnode, the Bitcoin (BTC) hash rate has climbed back to be only 6.5% short of its all-time high. This upward trend materializes despite the redirection of energy by several large public miners toward AI applications. Just three months prior, the network experienced its longest recorded decrease in hash rate. Current data indicates that private and international mining entities are effectively filling the void created by this shift toward AI.

Will Clemente, an on-chain analyst, observed on X that the hash rate is nearly back at record levels despite miners moving toward AI. He noted that it is quite significant that Bitcoin's hash rate is quietly approaching record highs even with all the pivots toward AI from miners.

The 14-day moving average for the hash rate reached a high point near 1.135 zettahashes per second (ZH/s) in late 2025. Subsequently, it experienced a drop of approximately 22% between October 2025 and February 2026, leveling off near 870 exahashes per second (EH/s). The metric then saw a sharp increase in February, subsequently testing that lower boundary in June and again in August, with each test being sustained. The most recent upward movement represents the steepest climb since the February recovery, pushing the metric to roughly 1.06 ZH/s. BeInCrypto's August review characterized this decline as the longest on record, noting that no bottom had been established. Looking back, the August retest served as the actual floor.

The price action presents a contrasting narrative. BTC is trading at $79,774, reflecting a 0.8% decrease over the past 24 hours and sitting roughly 37% below its peak valuation of $126,210. Conversely, the hash rate is only 6.5% shy of its own record. This small gap suggests that miners are planning for long-term expansion rather than merely pursuing short-term profit margins.

The network's mining difficulty is also climbing back toward its peak. Data from mempool indicates that the network increased it by 5.92%, reaching 140.58 trillion (T) on October 16. Furthermore, an additional rise of around 5% to 6% is anticipated for October 29. These two consecutive jumps of that magnitude are unusual for 2026, as most adjustments throughout the year have involved reductions. Glassnode’s chart illustrates this progression, showing the difficulty sliding from a record 155.97T in late October 2025 down to about 126T by February. After a brief recovery in the spring, it hit a low of 124.93T in June, which represented the largest cut of the year. If the current forecast holds true, the difficulty could approach 148T to 150T, which would be its highest level since late 2025 and only 4% to 5% below the record. The August analysis had contended that a negative year-over-year result through the autumn would confirm a persistent reduction in Bitcoin's security budget; however, the reading remains negative because late 2025 set the record. Nevertheless, the rising difficulty and hash rate suggest that this contraction has paused.

The recovery does not imply that miners have abandoned AI, as the AI pivot has not slowed the overall trend. Riot Platforms revealed a hosting agreement spanning 20 years for 191 megawatts (MW) at its Rockdale, Texas facility on August 10. This contract is valued at $9.1 billion, potentially rising to $16.1 billion with extensions. While reports pointed to Anthropic as the client, Riot did not disclose the customer's identity. In October, The Information stated that IREN secured a multiyear cloud agreement with Anthropic, though neither entity has confirmed this. IREN is also reducing its mining presence, planning to decommission approximately 23.2 EH/s of capacity by December 31. BlocksBridge Consulting reports that public miners experienced a 15% decline in realized hash rate during the first half of 2026. Currently, disclosed contracts for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) across listed miners surpass $70 billion, though CoinShares estimates that only about $1.1 billion of this backlog is billed annually thus far.

If public miners are contracting, the new hash rate must originate elsewhere. Bitdeer stands out as the most obvious exception among publicly listed firms, with its self-mining hash rate reaching 82.3 EH/s in September, a significant increase from 35 EH/s the year before. Furthermore, older mining hardware is changing hands; BlocksBridge suggests that rigs retired by public miners are being acquired by smaller operators who possess inexpensive power. Texas also played a part in this shift, as Luxor attributed September's rebound largely to Texas fleets resuming operation after the state grid's peak demand on September 12. Geographic expansion of this growth is also evident: Hashrate Index data showed Ethiopia's hash rate increased by 129% year-over-year in the first quarter, while Paraguay rose 54% and Oman gained 28%. The price also offered support, as BTC recovered toward JPMorgan's estimated production cost of $85,000 in late September. Meanwhile, Capriole's Hash Ribbons indicator signaled the cessation of miner capitulation on August 27. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, characterized the hash rate recovery as an indirect bullish indicator for Bitcoin, asserting that "Bitcoin hashrate is back in an uptrend, with miners running at full capacity. Higher hashrate means stronger security and better fundamentals as a store of value. Public miners are backed by TradFi giants. This is an indirect bullish signal from institutional investors, imo."

Hash rate serves as a metric for the computational power safeguarding the network; a level approaching the record suggests that mounting an attack on Bitcoin would be as costly as it has ever been. The data also implies a more decentralized ownership structure, with private operators and emerging regions taking share from listed miners. Some analysts contend that this energy foundation bolsters Bitcoin's valuation. However, risks persist. Hashprice dropped to approximately $36 per petahash per day on October 25, a decline of around 11% over a month, according to Hashrate Index data. Unless BTC rises, the increasing difficulty will continue to compress profit margins. IREN's planned exit in December could also remove substantial capacity. For the moment, the miners moving toward AI have not weakened the network. Maintaining this recovery will likely depend on BTC's price keeping pace with the climbing difficulty.

Why it matters

The hash rate recovery suggests miners are expanding for the long run, indicating strong underlying confidence in Bitcoin's security. Rising difficulty and hash rate counteract earlier concerns about a lasting contraction in Bitcoin's security budget. This signals a strengthening of the network's fundamentals as a store of value.