Iran Bitcoin activity drops 80%, then rebounds during blackout, says Chainalysis

Chainalysis's October 26 report details this decline and subsequent rise in activity it labels as routine usage, noting that household access levels remain unmeasured.

The blockchain analytics firm stated on that date that following Iran's extended internet shutdown spanning February through May 2026, Bitcoin transactions within their designated everyday-use set recovered to over 75% of the starting level, after an initial drop near 80%.

This resurgence occurred while the restrictions were still active. Some network activity traced to Iran appeared during intense limitations, though the quantity of individuals with reliable fund access remains unknown.

These findings stem from Chainalysis's fresh Middle East and North Africa study, which surveyed July 2025 through June 2026. Independent tracking from Cloudflare confirmed the lengthy disruption and its partial easing.

During the first shutdown, Cloudflare saw Iranian traffic drop below 1% of prior levels, mirroring Chainalysis's report of an initial 80% decline in Bitcoin activity.

By the time the blackout concluded, Chainalysis noted Bitcoin activity gradually climbed, hitting over 75% of its baseline. After easing late in May, activity nearly doubled its starting rate.

In a separate January comparison, Chainalysis documented almost 90% fewer Bitcoin transactions in the first week of that outage versus its normal period, followed by activity surpassing baseline once restrictions lifted.

Chainalysis's methodology uses behavioral signals, like interacting with a specific national exchange, to locate personal wallets, which differs from how service usage is allocated via website traffic.

Why it matters

This data suggests that significant Bitcoin activity persisted in Iran despite severe national internet restrictions. Investors should watch how this resilience compares to other geopolitical risk scenarios affecting crypto access.