4M Bitcoin Bought Over $85K Could Cap Recovery, Glassnode Says

A substantial holding of approximately four million Bitcoin, acquired at prices ranging from $85,000 to $118,000, could potentially limit the market's rebound, according to insights from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

This block of long-term holders, defined by Glassnode as individuals who have possessed their coins for over 155 days, predominantly acquired their assets in 2025. Glassnode's Wednesday note indicated that more than half of the coins held by these long-term investors were purchased at prices surpassing the current market valuation.

The Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday to maintain its benchmark interest rate within the 3.75% to 4.00% range, a decision reached by a 10-2 vote, even though traders had previously assigned a probability exceeding 70% to a rate hike in December.

Bitcoin is currently trading near the average purchase price held by owners of U.S. spot ETFs, a day after the central bank kept rates unchanged. Glassnode noted that these long-term holders are currently sitting on losses concerning about 4 million BTC bought in the $85,000 to $118,000 range, and many of them might choose to sell if the price ascends back toward those higher levels.

At Bitcoin's present price of roughly $81,400, this specific block of holdings is valued at around $326 billion, representing a 1.2% increase over the preceding 24 hours, yet it remains about 35% below its peak historical high of $126,080. Glassnode further pointed out that the price band situated between $84,000 and $85,000 has caused Bitcoin to revert downward four times this year, and the asset has only managed to close above this threshold on five occasions since January. The last time it surpassed this level was in September, reaching a high of $87,100.

ETF participants are also situated near a break-even point. James Seyffart, an ETF analyst from Bloomberg Intelligence, estimated the average price paid by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs for their holdings to be $81,500, a figure he refined in a tweet on Wednesday to just under $82,000, observing that Bitcoin has been oscillating around this level since the close of August. Seyffart’s chart indicated that the average unrealized loss for ETF holders stood at approximately $2.63 billion as of Monday; however, he clarified in subsequent replies that this calculation only accounts for fund flows, not the prices paid by buyers in the secondary market.

The 10-year Treasury yield stood just under 5% at midday on Thursday, according to CNBC, marking a decrease from 5.05% at Wednesday's close and falling short of its 52-week peak of 5.37% recorded on October 7. Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey, asserted that "What truly constrains Bitcoin's performance," he told Decrypt, "is the persistently high U.S. Treasury yields and real interest rates, which are significantly raising the opportunity cost for investors holding risk assets."

Sun also mentioned that the reduced funding rates observed on Bitcoin perpetual futures have diminished the returns generated by cash-and-carry arbitrage, which involves pairing spot Bitcoin with short futures contracts. Meanwhile, Galaxy Research discovered that nine banks and hedge funds reduced their spot ETF exposure by 68,000 BTC as that trading avenue diminished, while wealth platforms and sovereign funds increased their holdings.

ETF inflows have shown an uptick this week; data from SoSoValue reveals that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed approximately $424 million between Monday and Wednesday, following a period where $635 million exited the funds on October 22.

Echoing Glassnode, Sun stated, "Any rally above $85,000 could face selling pressure from long-term holders seeking to break even," though both sources indicated that the selling activity has remained light. Glassnode further noted that holders have realized progressively smaller losses with each downturn since August; for instance, at the August low, realized losses outweighed profits by about $630 million in a single day, whereas the largest daily net loss around a dip on October 24 was merely about $27 million.

Sun concluded that "The core issue facing the market right now is not panic selling, but rather insufficient new buying interest to support a sustained recovery." Looking at the downside, Glassnode highlighted about $42 million in bids located between $78,000 and $79,000 on Binance, alongside an average cost basis for newer purchasers sitting at $75,800. Sun anticipates that Bitcoin will remain within the $75,000 to $85,000 range in the near term until macro liquidity improves and ETFs resume consistent net inflows. He added that whether selling pressure near $85,000 can be absorbed "will serve as an important signal to determine whether the market can regain strength."

Why it matters

The concentration of long-term holdings near $85,000 suggests potential selling pressure if Bitcoin rallies toward that level. This dynamic, combined with ETF holder break-even points, will be key to determining if a sustained recovery is possible. Investors should watch how selling pressure near $85,000 is absorbed.