Bitcoin beats S&P 500 on most days but loses month

BlackRock's IBIT is pulling in substantial capital, drawing about $6 billion since August 1, according to Coinbase Institutional's October 23 report, dwarfing the roughly $500 million seen across all other US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

In terms of performance against traditional markets, Bitcoin's rate of winning against the S&P 500 has climbed above 50% in recent trading periods, a significant rebound from the June slump, which was the weakest stretch in nearly six years, as noted by Glassnode. Specifically, over the 18 sessions in October, Bitcoin managed to outperform US stocks in 10 of those periods, yet the losses during the losing sessions were twice as large as the gains during the winning ones, ultimately leaving it behind as BlackRock's ETF dominated the inflow narrative.

Examining the October data through October 26 using Farside Investors’ figures, the share of inflows attributed to IBIT reached 96.3%. A precise calculation covering the period from October through October 26 reveals that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 on 10 out of 18 sessions, translating to a 55.6% win rate; during this time, Bitcoin dropped by 4.25%, while the S&P climbed by 0.33%, creating a 4.58% advantage for the stock market. In its ten successful sessions, Bitcoin achieved an average edge of about 0.71%, whereas its average shortfall across the eight losing sessions was 1.44%, roughly double that amount.

Looking at broader trends, corporate treasuries invested approximately $14.5 billion in Bitcoin during the first half of 2026, contrasting with nearly $5 billion in net outflows from US spot ETFs. Since August, the picture shows ETFs drawing in about $6.4 billion, while treasuries contributed roughly $1.5 billion. Farside Investors' fund-level data from August 3 through October 26 indicates that IBIT absorbed a net $5.7 billion, while all other funds combined saw inflows of $221 million. October's concentration figure is not defined because IBIT brought in $866 million while rival funds experienced losses exceeding $1 billion, with the entire category showing a net outflow of about $203 million. The Farside figure up to October 21 stood at about 90.5%, meaning the ascent toward 96.3% is influenced by redemptions from other funds as much as buying activity at IBIT.

Over the 18 sessions in October, IBIT averaged daily net inflows of $48.1 million, while competing funds collectively lost $59.4 million daily, resulting in a combined daily outflow of $11.3 million. Should the redemptions from rival funds maintain this rate, IBIT's daily inflows would need to increase by about 24%, reaching $59.4 million, to bring the category's net flow to zero. The concentration metric reflects the observable ETF channel, and IBIT caters to numerous market makers, advisors, and investors. It is important to note that ETF creations and redemptions undergo processes involving hedging, settlement, and inventory before reaching the actual spot market, so this share metric only tracks ETF flows, excluding individual purchases and total Bitcoin acquisitions.

On the technical side, the seven-day Coinbase premium remained negative throughout October, according to the October 23 report, alongside stablecoin supply sitting about $12.7 billion below its May peak, suggesting subdued demand in the US spot market. Glassnode’s most recent weekly report provided data showing a spot cumulative volume delta of negative $80.5 million, futures open interest near $37.5 billion, and active addresses hovering around 615,200. Furthermore, the options 25-delta skew rose to 10.4% from 8.9%, which signals an increased appetite for downside protection. The premium, which compares two exchanges, and open interest, which tallies positions on both sides, together describe a regulated-access bid that is stronger than the underlying spot market, with stablecoin supply acting as a liquidity indicator.

Glassnode’s research from October 7 observed that the seven-day spot and ETF volume, totaling about $6.8 billion, was lower than on approximately 90% of days since the beginning of 2024, and identifiable new inflows accounted for less than two-fifths of the rise in realized capitalization over 30 days. Higher prices can simply reflect existing coins being traded at elevated valuations. If the Federal Reserve maintains its current stance, the December expectations remain stable, IBIT inflows continue, and rival funds begin to see renewed inflows, Bitcoin possesses a potential path from the $81,300 ETF cost basis cited by Coinbase toward a range of $82,500 to $84,400. Reaching a level between $88,000 and $95,000 would require easing in the macroeconomic pressures and a weakening US dollar.

A decline in IBIT's market share would be interpreted positively if it meant competitors were attracting capital, but it would be viewed negatively if IBIT itself was losing demand more rapidly than other funds. Should strong GDP figures or persistent PCE data reinforce a higher-for-longer interest rate environment while IBIT inflows diminish and other ETFs continue to shed assets, a drop beneath $77,000 to $77,800 would expose the $73,000 to $75,000 zone that Coinbase has identified. With one-month implied volatility near 35%, placing it in the bottom 7th percentile since 2019, the expected range is framed; a one-standard-deviation move suggests a fluctuation of about 4.8% over seven days, or approximately $76,100 to $83,900 from the $80,007 closing price on October 26, and about 10% over a 30-day period.

The return of Bitcoin's winning days, alongside the demand driven by one specific fund, signals a positive shift, yet whether this recovery widens will depend on the net flows across rival ETFs, stablecoin supply dynamics, and the Coinbase premium. Gino Matos, a journalist with six years of experience in the crypto industry and a law school background, primarily focuses his expertise on the Brazilian blockchain sector. Oluwapelumi views Bitcoin’s potential, offering commentary on topics such as DeFi, mining, culture, and hacks, thereby highlighting its transformative power.

Why it matters

While Bitcoin's relative win rate against the S&P 500 is recovering, the overall monthly loss highlights persistent market headwinds. Investors should watch whether this recovery broadens beyond BlackRock's IBIT inflows or if other metrics signal broader spot demand.