Bitcoin Gains, 14,942 BTC Leave Exchanges Before Fed Decision

Bitcoin has climbed back above the $80,000 mark, showing gains exceeding 1% over the last twenty-four hours as traders digest improving exchange movements, inconsistent ETF demand, and heightened geopolitical tension ahead of the Fed's interest rate determination. Market data from crypto.news indicated that BTC was trading near $80,800, having fluctuated between $79,416 and $81,159 throughout the day. The overall trading volume hovered around $23.5 billion, while its total market capitalization maintained a level above $1.62 trillion.

Despite this recent upturn, the price has yet to reclaim the $82,000 threshold, meaning the latest surge hasn't confirmed a definitive breakout. This rebound arrives after a challenging period regarding institutional appetite, although the return of positive ETF inflows coupled with substantial withdrawals from exchanges has offered some underlying support.

Adding another layer of unpredictability to the financial landscape are recent reports suggesting a potential U.S. military intervention against Iran. Institutional capital saw an uptick on October 26th, following two consecutive days of heavy withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, when funds attracted roughly $110.3 million, largely through BlackRock's IBIT. This recovery followed combined outflows totaling about $773.5 million on October 22nd and 23rd, with $635.6 million leaving on the first of those days.

When crypto.news documented Bitcoin's downturn, those withdrawals coincided with increasing worries about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory, alongside leveraged liquidations. However, SoSoValue data from October 27th revealed a smaller net inflow of about $24.54 million, suggesting that institutional interest remains uneven. Although cumulative inflows are near $57.32 billion, daily purchases have not yet consistently bounced back from the previous week's withdrawals.

On the blockchain level, the picture is different: Santiment reported that a net movement of approximately 14,942 BTC out of exchanges occurred, representing the largest daily outflow seen in five weeks. This movement comes right before the Fed's decision on Wednesday, and the analytics firm interpreted these withdrawals as a possible sign that immediate selling pressure might ease ahead of the Fed's declaration. Nevertheless, exchange activity alone cannot confirm whether holders plan to accumulate, since transfers can involve changes in custody or movement between different platforms.

The Federal Reserve's policy statement on October 28th remains the primary event for crypto traders, with intense focus placed on inflation and Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks. In addition to the Fed's decision, investors are facing the release of third-quarter U.S. GDP figures, September personal consumption expenditures inflation data, and earnings reports from major tech corporations, as outlined in the weekly economic calendar. Market expectations favor policymakers maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%, continuing from the quarter-point hike in September. Guidance suggesting another rate hike in December could negatively impact speculative assets, whereas less restrictive commentary might bolster Bitcoin's recovery.

Julio Moreno, head of CryptoQuant research, noted that spot demand for Bitcoin continued to shrink throughout October as U.S. investors largely remained on the sidelines. He pointed out that the firm's Bull Score Index dropped from 90 down to 60, signaling less favorable market conditions. Moreno stated, "Uptober" has been disappointing, because "Spot demand continued to contract, while US investors remained mostly on the sidelines. "Trader's took profits, while there's still gains to be realized. "Overall conditions became less bullish (Bull Score Index down from 90 to 60). Macro...

Moreno also flagged the 365-day moving average at $77,585, the trader's realized price at $74,041, and the 200-day moving average at $73,028 as critical levels to watch should the market weaken. Geopolitical developments have complicated the outlook following reports of potential renewed military action against Iran. A Wall Street Journal report from October 28th detailed how U.S. officials cautioned several Gulf nations about the possibility of a brief military campaign after the November 3 midterm elections. This report mentioned military preparations involving regional forces and air-defense systems, though no final strike decision had been issued.

These events have renewed worries regarding oil prices and potential inflationary pressure. If energy costs rise, this could complicate expectations for future Federal Reserve actions, especially if tensions lead to sustained increases in crude oil prices. Bitcoin's reaction remains ambiguous; while some investors view the cryptocurrency as a hedge during global instability, recent trading has shown sensitivity to changes in financial risk appetite, interest rates, and liquidity.

Despite recovering above $80,000, Bitcoin's daily technical structure maintains a cautious stance. Chart readings place BTC near $80,915, which is beneath its nine-day moving average of $81,416 and its 21-day moving average of $81,905. Because the shorter moving average sits below the longer one, the chart retains a bearish crossover pattern. The Relative Strength Index currently reads 45.52, falling below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting buying momentum has not fully returned.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted $81,400 as a key three-day closing level after Bitcoin lost it as support. If this area fails to be reclaimed, it could solidify its role as resistance, though a sustained climb could strengthen the argument for testing the $82,000–$82,500 range. Immediate support remains near $80,000, with $78,000 and $76,000 offering further cushions should selling resume. A move surpassing the short-term moving averages could bring $84,202 into view, with stronger resistance anticipated around $86,000.

Separately, analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin incurred negative returns in the fourth quarter during the three preceding U.S. midterm election years: 2014, 2018, and 2022. Bitcoin has registered a negative Q4 in each of the last three midterm election years. These historical observations reflect past events and do not guarantee that Bitcoin will follow that pattern in 2026.

This article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Why it matters

The market is currently balancing positive exchange inflows against major uncertainty surrounding the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Investors will be watching the Fed's decision closely to gauge future interest rate expectations and Bitcoin's trajectory.