bitcoin
Galaxy Urges Bitcoin Accumulation, Cites ETF Demand, Debt Support
With prices hovering near the $80,000 mark, having stalled after a recent rally, Galaxy asserts that the optimal moment for investors to begin acquiring Bitcoin is now.
The firm posits that the market bottomed out in June, and that Bitcoin is presently entering an accumulation phase mirroring those periods preceding every prior significant ascent. Alex Thorn, who heads the firmwide research division at Galaxy, stated in a document titled “Why now is the time to add and hold BTC” that they believe the bear market concluded in June.
Galaxy’s conviction stems from several technical and fiscal indicators. Thorn noted that the cryptocurrency has successfully recovered above its 50-week moving average, a milestone achieved after it had remained beneath that line for 44 weeks. Furthermore, the reduction in selling pressure and increasing governmental fiscal risks are making the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization an attractive asset for accumulation.
This technical strength is supported by shifts in market positioning. Net long exposure among asset managers via CME bitcoin futures has dropped by 57% since the week of the peak price, and numerous major trading companies have significantly trimmed their holdings of ETFs. Thorn commented on this dynamic, observing, “The fast money has left, the base stayed, and everything else is priced for perfection.”
Adding to the bullish case, spot bitcoin ETFs absorbed 87,000 BTC following the low point in June, which suggests a renewed directional appetite as arbitrage activity waned. The firm also finds strengthening appeal in Bitcoin as a fixed-supply asset, pointing to the rising U.S. debt, ongoing deficits, and escalating interest expenses.
Despite these positive signals, Galaxy remains mindful of potential headwinds. They acknowledge risks stemming from broader market downturns, disruptions related to artificial intelligence, and the development of quantum computing. However, they caution that a weekly closing below $76,540, without a subsequent recovery within one month, would challenge the firm’s technical assessment.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $80,000, marking a 38% increase from the lows seen in June, which were under $58,000. Nevertheless, this figure is still about 35% lower than the record high established at over $126,000, meaning a return to that peak would necessitate a gain of approximately 53%.
Galaxy Digital, a New York City-based U.S. financial and infrastructure company founded in 2018 by billionaire Mike Novogratz and which trades on Nasdaq under the ticker GLXY, also noted that other investors have been taking advantage of the price dips. Thorn further elaborated that the current accumulation phase resembles sentiments observed during previous market troughs, alongside institutional interest in tokenization and stablecoins, even as interest in Bitcoin itself wanes momentarily.
Why it matters
This analysis suggests current price weakness might be a buying opportunity, aligning with a long-term accumulation thesis. Readers should watch if Bitcoin can sustain gains or if a drop below $76,540 challenges Galaxy's technical outlook.
